Cyclical history and the Twins

Published 8:44 am Thursday, September 11, 2008

There is a feeling among some history buffs that history is cyclical and if you wait long enough things will repeat themselves. They point to the history of man and man’s nations.

The rise and fall of the Roman Empire. Rome dominated the known world for centuries, declined and then was able to reinvent itself. Others point to the British Empire and how England was the world’s dominant power even though it started from an unimportant, small island; and after over a century of rule, has again fallen back to small island status. Some doom and gloom boys state the United States is on the same cyclical path. Small power, super power, Small power. It does appear events run in cycles. What goes up must come down.

Nature repeats itself, especially the temperate zone where one season follows another. Some pretty bright people believe in cyclical history. A percentage of Wall Street brokers believe this, not that they’re so bright. When the market goes down, they bet it will go back up. After all, it always has and no doubt always will repeat itself.

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If the theory is true for large events, wouldn’t it be true for smaller happenings like a baseball season and the teams that play baseball. A season is six months and that should be ample time for the cyclical theory to work.

If a team is playing well and then plays badly, could it repeat itself and play well? Why, it seems that it could. Is there an example of a team playing well and then playing badly? Yes, the Minnesota Twins. Could a team then play well? Let’s take a look.

What has happened to the Twins? Why have they not won many games recently? It’s a number of things. They have stopped hitting well in the clutch. The starting pitching has faltered, not badly, but to a degree. The defense has not played well, particularly Nick Punto at shortstop. One of the road game losses at Oakland was directly attributable to Punto. Another error by Punto led to a two-run inning by Detroit during their homestand. I would rather have a shortstop make the routine plays, rather than one who makes spectacular plays, but not the routine.

The defense has followed Punto to a degree. They have made some great defensive plays, but have erred on routine plays. Another problem is Jason Kubel playing left field. There have been deep fly balls that Jason just could not get to. They’re not errors, but another fielder might have caught them.

However, the biggest problem has been the relief pitching. Granted they would have fared better if there was a better defense behind them. But they have been the biggest contributor to the team’s losses. I exclude no one, not even the six million dollar man Joe Nathan. If he had pitched well, the team would have returned from the road trip with a .500 record instead of 5 and 9. The team has a bullpen of six pitchers and if Gardenhire cannot rely on one, with possible exception of Nathan, the team’s in trouble.

What can save the Twins? Will our cyclical theory do it? No, I don’t think so. Greek glory, Roman grandeur and the British Empire have not come back.

There is a better theory of history and time. The straight line theory that history is not cyclical and that there is a beginning and an end. Here is a quote from the Bible. “Then he said to me: I am the Alpha and the Omega, the beginning and the end.”

That puts the kibosh on the theory that the Twin’s bullpen will magically reinvent itself. What can they do? The answer is simple. Relievers must pitch better. The trading season is over and there is no help coming. They must hitch up their pants and do their job.