Dayton, Franken remain in lead

MINNEAPOLIS — A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows Gov. Mark Dayton and Sen. Al Franken maintain leads over their Republican challengers in their respective bids for re-election — but both of their opponents have gained some ground less than two weeks before voters head to the polls.

The poll, taken Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, shows 45 percent of likely voters surveyed support Democrat Dayton for governor, while 38 percent support Jeff Johnson. Five percent of voters polled supported Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet.

Last month’s Minnesota Poll showed 45 percent of voters surveyed supported Dayton, while 33 percent supported Johnson.

The new poll surveyed 800 likely voters by telephone, using landlines and cellphones. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

“Our own polling has consistently shown us with a significantly larger lead,” said Katharine Tinucci, Dayton’s campaign manager. Dayton’s campaign has stressed his experience and accomplishments, while Johnson’s campaign has said Dayton is incompetent.

Johnson campaign spokesman Jeff Bakken said: “All the momentum in this race is on Jeff’s side, and the result is going to come down to turnout. And in the midterm election in this political environment, we like Jeff’s odds.”

Dayton’s support is strongest in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, among women, and among voters between 18 and 34, and those over 50. Johnson has a 45-38 percent lead among men and leads Dayton when it comes to voters who consider themselves independent.

Dayton and Johnson are close to tied in southern Minnesota, but Dayton holds an 8-point lead in the north.

Voters were also asked about the U.S. Senate race. Forty-eight percent of likely voters surveyed support Franken, while 39 percent support McFadden, who seems to be closing the gap after a September poll showed McFadden had been down by 13 percentage points.

The poll shows McFadden continues to have more support in the suburbs and among independents, while Franken has more support from voters in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, and across northern Minnesota.

The latest Minnesota poll shows some new shifts between the candidates.

Franken appears to have erased a 20-plus point lead that McFadden held last month in northern Minnesota, and Franken now has a 45 percent to 34 percent advantage in the region — where issues like the proposed PolyMet copper-nickel mine on the Iron Range have become politically volatile.

Meanwhile, McFadden has gained ground in southern Minnesota, where he now trails Franken by only a couple of percentage points.