In addition to recognizing the 2018 Farm Family of the Year, this year’s annual agriculture luncheon meant a look into the crystal ball for those interested in grain commodities.

“I will tell you that the situation is slowly turning and I can see some light at the end of the tunnel,” said Edward Usset, guest speaker and grain marketing specialist.

Usset spoke to the assembled members of the farming community about supply and demand for the national corn, soybean and wheat markets Tuesday in the Fairlane Building of the Freeborn County Fairgrounds.

Chamber of Commerce Agriculture Committee member Jacob Sorensen said Usset’s approach was set on a wide spectrum of consideration and intended to provide a simpler approach to grain marketing for luncheon attendees.

“He brings a very broad approach to agriculture, talking about ag in a world aspect, so that’s cool to see because we are in a world economy with agriculture,” Sorensen said.

Usset said 2017 was the fourth consecutive year with corn yields above the trend line. In Minnesota, growers set a record state average of 194 bushels per acre. Nationally, yields have been growing, on average, two bushels per acre a year. However, supply has remained strong, he said. Worldwide, a look at corn stocks relative to usage shows a slight decline.

“I can say that we’ve quit building stocks, and that’s the first step toward getting a better price,” Usset said.

Soybean demand continues to grow, following what Usset said is a 30-year trend. He attributes some of this growth to pork production, citing pork as the world’s most widely-eaten meat. Imports in China this year are also on track to set another record high. For the fourth consecutive year, yields are above the trend line, Usset said. He said soybean yields are improving nationally at a half-bushel an acre, also on trend with the last 30 years.

Within the global soybean market, Usset cited Argentina as a point of interest. March reports projected a 10 million metric ton drop from last year’s production, and Usset projected that in the end, it will be a 10-11 million metric ton drop. Eleven million metric tons is 400 million bushels, Usset said — approximately 10 percent of the U.S. crop. Usset called it a “disaster” in Argentina’s soybean production, and cited it as why November soybean futures are above $10.

Because of problems in Argentina, Usset predicted stocks will not build from a worldwide perspective.

“The ship has started to slowly turn, or at the very least, we’re lifting this wet blanket of a bear market off ourselves,” he said.

Despite a low population of wheat growers in southern Minnesota — and, as witnessed by a show of hands, none in attendance at the luncheon — Usset said wheat prices are still important for corn farmers to consider.

“We have to talk about wheat because in the world of grain, corn is king, but soybeans and wheat are the princes, and what happens in the wheat market does spill over in the corn and soybean markets,” Usset said.

According to Usset, wheat is the No. 2 feed grain after corn. Worldwide, 20 percent of the wheat crop goes into animal feed, and when wheat suffers, it drags on corn. Wheat supply is strong worldwide because of consecutively good years in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, but demand is not. Usset said the U.S. planted fewer acres of wheat last year than it had in the past 100 years. Despite low U.S. plant acres and yields below trend lines, he said this global supply means world wheat stocks are building again, “and this is not a good trend.”

Nonetheless, Shell Rock Ag Inc. Pioneer seed sales representative Brian Davis said the overall report was a hopeful look on what the future looks like and affects the work he does selling seed.

“You know, prices are down, guys don’t want to buy or want to go cheap — (they’re) not spending money on their inputs as far as fertilizer,” he said. “So anything that looks, has a positive, always helps.”

The Agriculture Committee recognized Dave and Becky Ausen as farm family of the year.