The Shell Rock River Watershed District used an annual budget meeting to look further to a 2021 forecast full of variables but not, as of rough projections, flush with cash.

The forecast is two years out, and therefore it is the “best guess” of Shell Rock River Watershed District Administrator Andy Henschel and Financial Technician Carmen Christensen. The intention of doing such a forecast, Henschel said, is to give the board of managers a look at the bigger picture when considering finances and future projects.

“There’s a ton of variables here that none of us know as far as income, so it’s important for staff to bring you guys recommendations,” Henschel said.

For instance, the projection that shows the district in the black at the end of 2020 also shows it in the red by over $800,000 at the end of 2021 after two years of about $2.5 million each in dredging project costs — but that projection does not include the potential for the district to sell property.

Henschel said a developer could purchase a wetland bank the district owns on the old country club property west of Lakeview Boulevard and east of St. John’s Lutheran Community on Fountain Lake.

Additionally, monthly sales tax payouts have been higher than those estimated in the projection. The projection uses $119,000, but the number hit over $144,000 in February.

“That will change this number drastically,” Henshel said.

However, he acknowledged a recession or bad farm economy could also move that number in the other direction — why they used a “safe” estimate for the forecast, he said.

Staff also have the option to phase projects, which, depending on the timeline imposed on the district by Lessard Sams Outdoor Heritage Council for grant money, give three- to five-year windows for land acquisition after the grant is awarded, Henschel said.

Henschel said the district is not thinking about a bond issue at this time, and instead is working on getting the former country club property appraised.

“You’re not as bad off as you’re stating,” board manager Joe Pacovsky said.

The board also went briefly over the same 2020 budget drafts it previewed at a June budget workshop. The project and administration budgets had no changes since the previous meeting.

The project budget will drop by over $2 million from 2019 to 2020, and the administration budget will stay at the same $250,000.

That administration budget showed an uptick in the amount set aside for meeting expenses, more than doubling from $1,000 to $2,500. Henschel said this is due less to additional expenses and more to having the expenses put in the proper location on the budget (for instance, including visiting engineer appearances in the meeting category rather than on the project budget).

The 2020 project, administration and debt service budgets will be approved at the September board meeting ahead of their Sept. 15 deadline.