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By Craig Helmstetter, Minnesota Public Radio News

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 51 percent to 44 percent, according to a poll of Minnesota likely voters released by Morning Consult on Sept. 9.

This seventh public poll conducted in the state since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, and third since Harris selected Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, brings her average lead in state polls to just over 6 percentage points.

Technically, the results of this most recent poll — like four of the other six most recent polls taken on their own — are within the margin of error. Given the closeness of the race and relatively small sample sizes of the polls, many of the polls cannot definitively say that Harris is ahead especially given that some likely voters remain undecided. The error margins also mean, however, that Harris’ current lead could be even larger than reflected in any given poll result.

The consistency of Harris’ lead across all seven polls, now averaging 6.1 percentage points, suggests that she would prevail in the state if the election were held today.

The picture has improved for the Democratic ticket in the state since President Biden withdrew from the race on July 21. Prior to that time polling had generally shown Biden with a slight lead in Minnesota, but that ultimately the race was too close to call when factoring in the undecided voters and the error margins or credibility intervals that accompanied each poll’s results.

For example, in early June, the MPR News | Star Tribune | KARE11 Minnesota Poll of 800 likely voters and margin of error ±3.5 percentage points, found that 45 percent favored Biden, 41 percent favored Trump and 7 percent were undecided. Six percent favored Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has since suspended his national campaign.

Election forecasters agree: Minnesota is ‘likely Democrat’

Election forecasters, who generally combine both state and national polling results as well as economic indicators and other fundamentals into their predictions are having a hard time predicting who will win the national race for president.

They are not having such difficulty predicting the outcome in Minnesota, however. At least since Governor Walz’s appointment as Harris running mate, the five forecasts we are following all agree that the Democratic ticket will likely receive the state’s ten electoral votes.

ABC News/538: Likely Democrat (As of their Sept. 10 daily update. Their forecast for the state was updated from “leans” on Aug. 23. Nationally 538 has Harris ahead slightly with a 55 percent chance of winning.)

The Economist: Likely Democrat (Harris is “clearly favored” in Minnesota as of their Sept. 10 daily update; nationally their model has the race tied.)

NPR: Likely Democrat (Updated from “leans” on Aug. 26; nationally has the race as too close to call.)

Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat (Last updated Aug. 27, when they changed the state from “leans Democrat”; nationally Cook has the race as too close to call.)

Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Likely Democrat (Updated the state from “leans Democrat” on Aug. 20; nationally UVA has the race as too close to call.)

Deeper background

Minnesota has the nation’s longest streak among all states for favoring a Democrat for president. A Republican has not won the presidential race in Minnesota since 1972, when Republican President Richard Nixon defeated Democratic nominee George McGovern by 5.5 percentage points.

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 7.1 percentage points over then-President Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump also lost the state, but only by 1.5 percentage points.

Both the Democrats and Republicans have faced setbacks in this year’s presidential campaign.

On May 30, Trump was convicted as a felon “as a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor.”

On June 27, then presumptive Democratic nominee President Biden had a weak performance in a televised debate that played directly into fears about his age and continued fitness for office — leading some to call for his withdrawal from the race.

On July 13, Trump survived an assassination attempt at his outdoor campaign rally in Butler, Penn. Later that week Republicans officially nominated Trump and his newly-announced running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, at the Republican National Convention.

On July 21, Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Delegates to the upcoming Democratic National Convention, ultimately responsible for the party’s nomination, quickly united around Harris, both in Minnesota and nationally.

Harris announced that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would be her vice presidential running mate on Aug. 6. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who was running for president as an independent, announced that he was suspending his candidacy and backing Trump on Aug. 23.