It’s probably a mistake to attach a lot of significance to the straw polls that took place at the DFL and GOP caucuses last week. In fact, one could make the case that the results of these polls should be accompanied by that “Results not scientific — for amusement only” disclaimer that you see on many online surveys.

Still, there’s no denying that several gubernatorial candidates saw their stock rise last week. On the Republican side, Rep. Marty Seifert of Marshall established himself as the clear front-runner by claiming 50 percent of the vote. Rep. Tom Emmer of Delano was a strong second with 39 percent, which doesn’t bode well for the other five GOPcandidates.

The DFL side is more complicated, as Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak claimed 22 percent of the vote, followed closely by House Majority Leader Margaret Anderson Kelliher’s 20 percent. Five other candidates claimed at least 6 percent of the vote, 14 percent were undecided and former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton is holding out for the primary. The race for the DFL nomination is wide open.

If the DFLers aren’t well on their way to balancing the state’s books before the conventions begin, and if no bonding bill has been passed, then Anderson Kelliher could be in serious trouble. Many people on both sides of the political aisle believe she was outmaneuvered by Pawlenty at the end of the 2009 session when she and her DFL colleagues gave him the chance to use his unallotment powers to balance the budget. She now has less than three months to prove that she can be a “closer” in a difficult negotiating climate.

Seifert, on the other hand, resigned his minority leadership post when he entered the governor’s race, which means he could choose to stay out of the line of fire when the mud begins flying. That might be the safe play, but he could significantly increase his statewide profile by stepping up and proving that he can help broker a compromise that will balance the state’s books without relying on Pawlenty’s veto pen.

Speaking of our incumbent governor, we’d be remiss if we didn’t point out that he also has plenty of political capital at stake. The outcome of the 2010 Legislative Session will go a long way toward determining how serious a run he can make for the GOP presidential nomination.

The problem is, we’re not sure which outcome would serve him best.

If gridlock develops and he once again plays the role of a cost-cutting, no-new-taxes fiscal watchdog, he’ll score points with conservatives across the country — but might hurt his chances of winning his home state if he ends up on the ballot in 2012. Conversely, if he signs a bipartisan budget deal that’s achieved with little rancor, Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa are unlikely to notice.

Of course, that would mean Minnesotans would be the real winners in Pawlenty’s final year in office. Keep your fingers crossed.

— Rochester Post-Bulletin, Feb. 8