As we near the final weeks of another season of “American Idol,” we should also be nearing the final weeks of the Minnesota Legislative session. As everyone knows, “Idol” viewers get to vote every week, which determines who will be sent home and who gets to stay in the singing competition. Minnesota voters, however, will have to wait until November of 2010 to participate in our next political competition.

With no presidential race or U.S. Senate race on the ballot and with all state house races, state senate races and the governor’s race up, 2010 will truly be a “Minnesota election” and not a national election. The performance of key legislators this year, particularly on the tax issue, will likely determine how long they get to stay in the political competition. Election 2010 is being shaped right now.

After three long months of DFL dodgeball, last week both the House and Senate tax committees released their tax increase plans. There has been no secret since last November’s budget forecast showing a $4.8 billion shortfall for Minnesota’s next biennial budget that both DFL controlled bodies of the Legislature would propose and pass tax increases.

The only mystery was how much of a tax increase would be proposed and on whom. Last week’s release of the House and Senate tax proposals had about as much anticipation as the first tow barges of the season arriving on the Mississippi in St. Paul — both the tax bills and the barges are large, not very pretty and about what everyone expected.

With a big thud the Senate’s $2.2 billion tax bill hit the table in Room 15 of the Capitol. Just like five of the last six years, Senate Democrats are proposing the imposition of a new fourth tier for Minnesota’s income taxpayers.

This year the Senate’s tax bill, in addition to the new fourth-tier rate at 9.25 percent, also includes a proposal to increase all three current income tax levels, so that everyone who pays income taxes can pay more. The Senate tax bill would raise the lowest rate from 5.35 percent to 6 percent, the middle rate from 7.05 percent to 7.7 percent and the current top rate from 7.85 percent to 8.5 percent.

As in the past, the Senate tax proposal establishes a new top rate for married couples with incomes over $250,000 at 9.25 percent.

To put this income tax proposal into perspective with tax rates in our neighboring states, Wisconsin’s top rate is 6.75 percent, Iowa’s is the highest at 8.98 percent, North Dakota’s is 5.54 percent. And the winner is, South Dakota with no income tax.

The House tax proposal isn’t far behind with a $1.8 billion tax increase. It also establishes a new top income tax rate of 9 percent for a married couple earning $300,000 but doesn’t raise the other three income tax brackets. It does, however, raise cigarette taxes and alcohol taxes by more than $400 million.

As these tax bills progress in the next three weeks through both chambers and then to a tax conference committee it will be interesting to see which items in each of the respective bills survive to be included in the Omnibus Tax Bill which is destined to be VETOED by Gov. Pawlenty.

From the outset of this legislative session, Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been steadfast in his commitment not to raise taxes. With the DFL-controlled Legislature determined to raise taxes and the governor vowing to veto a tax increase, it will no doubt provide for an interesting end of the session, whenever they may be, and a good precursor to the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Many political pundits believe when Walter Mondale was running for President and proclaimed in his acceptance speech at the 1984 Democratic National Convention that he would raise taxes, that this statement sealed his fate and the outcome of the presidential election.

History is often repeated and the magnitude of the tax increases coming out of both the House and Senate this year may indeed seal the fate of several of the current DFL contenders for governor, both announced and unannounced. You heard it here first: Democratic candidates who vote for across the board income tax increases will not prevail in the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Phil Krinkie is a former Republican state representative from Lino Lakes and the president of the Taxpayers League of Minnesota. The eight-term lawmaker chaired the House Tax Committee and two other House panels.