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Billed as a neighbor to neighbor meeting, the Iowa caucuses have drawn such a skewed audience that even living up to the myth of its bell weather state status is getting more difficult.

Only 5% of Iowa Republicans even attended the caucuses, and that sample in no way represented the diverse population of the United States. Yet, the caucuses drew a disproportionate amount of media attention on caucus day and months before.

At one time the narrative seemed quaint — small town humble Iowans of “Music Man” character, come off the farm to vote for wholesome values which many believe to be inherent in the Hawkeye state.

But Iowa has become one of the most extreme states when it comes to education, public safety, the environment and its politicians. The son of one of the leaders of the Iowa Republican Party spewed profanities at a recent rally for ex-President Donald Trump.

The state has passed a book-banning law that calls for libraries and schools to remove any book that contains sexual content. School districts have identified hundreds of books in small town libraries that must be removed. Iowa has made carrying a gun easier and voting more difficult. Its governor ignored public records laws until she was sued by journalism organizations.

This is not “a place to grow.”

Iowa has a 90% white population, compared to a 72% white population for the U.S. While the Iowa non-English speaking population is 7%, the U.S. is 20%.

And because the misleading narrative is kept alive by media and others, Iowa draws disproportionate media attention in a world where media resources are stretched thin. We learn an awful lot about Iowa that isn’t particularly useful.

These facts eventually began to make sense to some, and the Democrats moved their first primary election contest to the more diverse South Carolina.

In the end, Iowa has proven that it’s not a bellweather for the U.S. presidency. In the last 20 years, only Barack Obama went on to win the presidency after winning the Iowa caucuses. But Iowa was a much different place in 2008 and Iowa Democrats are much different than Iowa Republicans.

In competitive non-incumbent caucuses since 1976, only two Republicans who won the caucus went on to become president.

And to suggest Iowans turned out en masse to support Trump on a very cold winter day is also hyperbole. The 2024 turnout was the lowest in more than a decade, according to a report on historical turnout by CBS news.

Iowa really never earned its status as a bellweather state, and the GOP would do well to choose another state for its first contest.

— The Free Press, Mankato, Jan. 19